Suppose you want to diagnose, predict future development or treat a particular patient. The reference class problem is this: Which population is most appropriate for these tasks? The reference class problem is hardwired. After spending a huge amount of research time, I get the impression that a satisfying solution is not even close. However, I am not giving up…

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I very much enjoyed a recent article on cholesterol in New Scientist by Michael Brooks, which is based on his personal experiences with statins. I’d recommend the article as a whole, but the point that really grabbed me was the following quote:

 

“After two years on statins I had stopped going to the gym. I gave up running. I cut down on swimming. I simply couldn’t bear the pain – or the humiliation of being so weak and sluggish. In the end, I told my doctor I wanted to stop taking statins because they were turning me into a couch potato. Surely that was as bad for me as having high cholesterol?”

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